AA3853American Airlines · DCA → BUF
updated 3h ago
Route confirmed American Airlines

AA3853 WashingtonDCA · 22:33 BuffaloBUF · 23:59

AA3853 by American Airlines flies from Washington (DCA) to Buffalo (BUF).

Right nowNext departure tomorrow Operates daily
15:04

scheduled from DCA

⚖ AA3853 typically leaves +17 and lands −19. The air wins minutes back.
Typical gate push+17 minmedian posted departure
Typical arrival−19 minmedian over 13 operations
Wins back in air~36 minmedian gate push vs arrival · how planes make up time → Cancellation0 in 13tracked operations · cancellation odds calculator →

Where the minutes go

last 7 operations · gate push → arrival
0+30+60+90 min
11-03
+17 gate · −19 arrival
10-31
+23 gate · −15 arrival
10-30
+33 gate · −2 arrival
10-29
+31 gate · −4 arrival
10-28
+5 gate · −30 arrival
10-27
+17 gate · −19 arrival
10-26
+9 gate · −26 arrival

The bar is how late it left the gate; the ring is where it actually arrived. Board clocks, not estimates.

The last 30 days

arrival outcome per operation

median arrival −19 min · 0 cancelled · 13 operations tracked

The route today

live boards
DCAWashingtonOn-time likelyDCA delay board →
BUFBuffaloOn-time likelyBUF delay board →
DCA→BUFevery carrier, schedules and on-time historyRoute intelligence →

Weather lens

Delay & cancellation outlook for this flight

Measured, 90-day sample
38%Chance of 15+ min delay
3.6%Chance of cancellation
+8 minTypical airport delay in this weather

Conditions at DCA and BUF are near their clear-air norm right now, so this reflects the route's recent baseline rather than a weather penalty. These figures come from both airports' records under conditions like today's, over the last 90 days.

Pro Flight Search tracking, 90 days · the weather × delay correlation study → · live weather risk by airport →

Tomorrow at Washington

Forecast

Wed 4 Nov, local date

High23°Clikely 22°C to 25°C
Low13°Clikely 11°C to 14°C

Forecast: GateWeather · incl. data from ECMWF (CC BY 4.0, modified) · Expected values for tomorrow from a forecast model, kept apart from today's measured figures.

Tomorrow at Buffalo

Forecast

Wed 4 Nov, local date

High24°Clikely 22°C to 25°C
Low14°Clikely 11°C to 16°C

Forecast: GateWeather · incl. data from ECMWF (CC BY 4.0, modified) · Expected values for tomorrow from a forecast model, kept apart from today's measured figures.

When it flies

scheduled departures
061422
M
T
W
T
F
S
S

Each mark is a scheduled departure at its origin-local time. Today is highlighted.

Other Washington to Buffalo flights today

same route · American Airlines
AA4597departs 08:20
AA4647departs 09:54
AA4694departs 10:10
AA5075departs 12:59
AA4074departs 15:59
AA3956departs 16:18

If AA3853 is cancelled, these are the other American Airlines nonstop flights from Washington to Buffalo on the same day, with scheduled departure times in DCA local time. Most flights that show a delay still operate. Rebooking usually helps only when that delay is very large. Every airline on this route →

How AA3853 actually runs

Pro Flight Search has tracked every published board update for AA3853 across the DCA and BUF boards: schedule changes, gate pushes and actual clocks. Usually lands ~14 min early. Based on 13 confirmed landings · 13/13 within 15 min of schedule. Pushes back late but makes up time in the air.

The verdict above is that record speaking, so it reflects how AA3853 operates rather than what the timetable promises. Numbers refresh as new flights operate.

Technical record

How this operation is measured

board clocksaircraft

Board log

scheduled → actual, per operation
11-03DCA 22:33 22:50 (+17)BUF 23:59 23:40 (−19)
10-31DCA 20:00 20:23 (+23)BUF 21:29 21:14 (−15)
10-30DCA 22:33 23:06 (+33)BUF 23:59 23:57 (−2)
10-29DCA 22:33 23:04 (+31)BUF 23:59 23:55 (−4)
10-28DCA 22:33 22:38 (+5)BUF 23:59 23:29 (−30)
10-27DCA 22:33 22:50 (+17)BUF 23:59 23:40 (−19)
10-26DCA 22:33 22:42 (+9)BUF 23:59 23:33 (−26)
10-25DCA 22:33 (+0)BUF 23:59 23:26 (−33)
10-24DCA 20:00 20:05 (+5)BUF 21:29 20:56 (−33)
10-23DCA 22:33 22:50 (+17)BUF 23:59 23:40 (−19)
10-22DCA 22:33 23:09 (+36)BUF 23:59 00:00 (+1)
10-21DCA 22:33 22:45 (+12)BUF 23:59 23:36 (−23)
10-20DCA 22:33 22:54 (+21)BUF 23:44 23:43 (−1)

Aircraft

Recent tails: N204NN, N219NN, N304KM, N210NN.

Board clocks recorded as DCA and BUF published them.

Planning around AA3853? Will a delayed flight be cancelled? · Do planes make up time in the air? · How we measure

Cite this data

Journalists, bloggers, and researchers may cite this page with attribution and a link to Pro Flight Search.

Suggested citation

Pro Flight Search: AA3853 Washington to Buffalo on-time performance, measured from the DCA and BUF airport boards.

Canonical URL
https://proflightsearch.com/flight/AA3853
How we measure this →